Martians rule in "War of the Worlds"

A. THE WAR OF THE WORLDS

• This was the first hostile alien invasion story. It struck a tremendous resonance in the popular imagination and became a prototype for much later science fiction & other speculative literature.

• Translations to the panic-inducing Halloween eve radio broadcast (Orson Welles, no relation, 1938) and a prototype special-effects-heavy film (1953) heralded a major wave of media invasion stories (ca. 1940 to present).
  
• HGW was one of the first writers to understand clearly the wider implications of scientific discoveries.

• In WoW, he combines the vast Copernican cosmos (no longer centered on mankind's welfare) with the Darwinian theory of evolution, which implies competition for scarce resources and "survival of the fittest."

• The inevitable implication of these two ideas is interplanetary migration, a concept Wells first introduced in his novel. The evolutionary imperative means that migration can take the form of a hostile invasion. (Recall that the Mars envisioned by Lowell was a desert planet, where the inhabitants were in a desperate struggle for survival.)

• More generally, Wells recognizes that the extraterrestrial environment is not benign for humans:
  "We can never anticipate the unseen good or evil that may come upon us suddenly out of space."
  Continuing fascination with aliens notwithstanding, the modern assessment is that realistic threats from advanced alien lifeforms are a much more remote possibility than those from our natural cosmic environment (solar activity, asteroid and comet impacts, supernovae and other stellar explosions, etc.).

• Wells also incorporated ecological ideas in the form of the symbiotic relationship between advanced lifeforms and microorganisms and the fact that this will differ from planet to planet. The humans are powerless in the face of Martian military technology, but terrestrial bacteria prove fatal to the Martians and save mankind in the end.

• Wells was a social commentator, not a scientist, and the novel constitutes an incisive critique of modern life: the evils of colonialism, now visited massively upon the world's largest colonial empire by the Martians; the fragility of civilization (e.g. the food chain is inverted in a matter of hours, and humans become Martian dinners); the shallowness of modern religion and conventional moral judgements (cf. the curate).

• HGW recognized (and implicitly warned about) the rapid pace of (human) technological development and its implications for society
  • The military technology of HGW's Martians is utterly overwhelming yet is not even 100 years more advanced than their human opponents'. The US military today could easily handle the Martians in the story. (But compare this measly one century advantage to the millions of years of development that are likely to separate us from any real space-traveling aliens.)

  • Wells was adept at seeing where technology was leading. His fictional Martian fighting machines (tanks) and poison gas materialized as key weaponry in World War I, 15 years later. In later works, Wells discussed the military importance of aircraft and atomic weapons well before their actual use.

  • The larger implication is that technology is rapidly transforming human cultures.

  • Wells' self-epitaph: "I told you so. You damned fools!"

B. UFO'S

• Supermarket tabloid view: UFO's are always alien spacecraft

• But, just as the description implies, in most cases the "object" is not identified, whether as a spacecraft or a more normal (natural or human) phenomenon.

Anomalistic Phenomena:

The first steps in scientific understanding are to identify a phenomenon and to establish its properties. Then, one can begin to try to interpret it.
At any time, there are many well-documented phenomena that scientists do not adequately understand (e.g. in the past: stars; the "red spot" on Jupiter; the bubonic plague; human genetics. Today: "dark energy"; junk DNA; Alzheimer's disease). These are what active scientists work to explain.

Most of the subjects of "pseudo-science" fall in this anomalistic category: ESP, telekinesis, astrology, psychic forecasts, much "alternative" medicine, etc.
Nonetheless, you will find more books on pseudoscience in a typical bookstore than on science itself. They sell well because of their emotional appeal and because most people do not know how difficult it can be to validate scientific ideas or how to apply suspended judgement (skepticism, see Study Guide 1) to new propositions.

Long history of "strange things" in the sky:

• (400 BC - 1940's): unusual lights, sounds, objects, airships. None subjected to critical scientific analysis. Phenomena which we now understand well, like comets or meteor showers, were often misperceived as supernatural or anomalistic events.

• Modern era begins in June 1947 when pilot Kenneth Arnold reports a formation of saucer-like craft flying near Mt. Rainier

• Publicity over Arnold's sighting leads to an intense "flap" of saucer reports over the next several years (including the infamous Roswell, NM case).

• 1947-today: Thousands of reports of "flying saucers," often in similarly concentrated flaps. USAF & other government investigations. Lately, many reports of human abductions by aliens.

Scientific standards

• "Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence."
  Empirical validation is essential---but using only the highest standards. Because of its importance, if true, the extraterrestrial hypothesis requires UNIMPEACHABLE evidence. We must eliminate all ordinary explanations before we appeal to extraordinary ones.
  Hundreds of badly documented cases are less useful than a single, thoroughly documented case.

• Data are marginal:
  • "Eyewitness" accounts, especially from untrained observers, are often faulty.
    • Reams of courtroom testimony in routine criminal cases vividly attest that eyewitness testimony is often greatly inferior to circumstantial evidence. See "On Being Certain by R. Burton.

    • It is hard to judge visually the distance, speed, & motion of objects in the sky---even for experienced observers like airline pilots. Since inferred speed depends on inferred distance, claims of large velocities are often doubtful.

    • Any transient phenomenon is hard to assess well.

  • For these reasons, objective evidence based on, e.g. radar or imaging, is preferred.
    • There has been precious little high quality, objective evidence concerning UFO's in the last 60 years.

    • "Have you noticed since everyone has a camcorder these days no one talks about seeing UFO's anymore?" Car Talk, Sept 2002. Yes, it isn't helpful to the alien enthusiasts that even though there are now millions of capable video cameras (e.g. in cell phones) spread across the face of the Earth, there are no better video recordings of alien spacecraft than there were 40 years ago. This despite the well-documented ability of people to record sudden, unusual, brief events (airplane crashes, for instance). The alien pilots are a lot more bashful than the Los Angeles Police Department.

• A sighting of an "unidentified" object in the sky doesn't demonstrate the existence of an anomalistic phenomenon. It simply creates a list of possibilities for its explanation.
  • That list must include the full range of possible scientific explanations (including a mistake or wishful thinking). The list must be refined using our full cumulative understanding of nature.

  • Something that looks strange to an untrained observer may have a perfectly ordinary explanation. Even if not, that doesn't mean aliens are involved.

  • Even the word "flying" is prejudicial in a "UFO" report. What are often called UFO's aren't flying at all. They are in the sky, but they may be outside the Earth's atmosphere: stars, planets, satellites.

Scientific assessment of UFO reports

• 90-95% of UFO reports are CLEARLY MISPERCEIVED natural or human phenomena: airplanes, planets, stars, clouds, balloons, flares, etc.

• The most commonly reported "UFO" other than airplanes is Venus. It can be dazzling white and astonishingly bright, making people think it's close-by, when it is really millions of miles away. "Seeing" effects in Earth's atmosphere can cause it (and other bright stars and planets) to appear to pulsate, wobble, or change color.
  REALITY CHECK if you see something strange in the sky:
  1. Watch for 5 minutes; is the "UFO" stationary with respect to the stars?
     
     If yes, then it's probably a celestial object, a minimum of many millions of miles from Earth
     
  2. Is it within about 40^o of the western or eastern horizon?
     
  3. Is it in a Zodiacal constellation?
     If yes, then it's probably Venus.

  
• The 5-10% of reports without obvious explanations mostly have insufficient information for analysis. However, a number of more complete cases have been pursued carefully and have turned up no convincing evidence of extraterrestrial craft.

• Some famous cases were deliberate frauds/hoaxes. There are many more cases of obvious self-delusion or irresponsible hype. Sometimes there is a willing suspension of critical faculties by UFO promoters: the UFO industry is comfortably profitable.

• Historical UFO reports are clearly strongly colored by people's prejudices. In the 19th century, reports tended to be of "airships"---i.e. balloons or dirigibles. Where are the "saucer" reports before 1947?

• There is an overwhelming media influence (e.g. at right) on the frequency and especially on the similarity of modern reports.
  Ironically, the similarity is then cited as evidence for the reality of the phenomenon.
  Saucer-like craft had themselves debuted in 1920's science fiction magazines----20 years before people started reporting them in the skies.

• Many psychological factors are involved (e.g. Cold War tensions coincided with early flurries of UFO reports). Overall, the UFO phenomenon shows symptoms of a mild form of mass hysteria.

• Belief in UFO's often has religious overtones (e.g. the ET's substitute for the second coming of Christ) and has sometimes been linked to explicitly religious activities:
  • The Heaven's Gate suicide cult

  • Scientology, a nouveau religion created by a science-fiction writer and based on the theme of interstellar migration

• Credibility of an effective government conspiracy to cover up UFO evidence for the last 60 years?
  Answer that yourself with three letters: I.N.S.
  The last few years have featured an embarrassingly rich tableau of ineptitude and porosity by government agencies. Lest we forget one of the classic cases: the Immigration and Naturalization Service issued welcoming visas to some of the September 11th hijackers 9 months after they had died in the wreckage of their aircraft.

• In 50 years, there has not been a single UFO case meeting the rigorous standards of evidence that are applied to mainstream scientific investigations.

Conclusions:

• Low probability of new/important natural phenomenon.

• Near ZERO PROBABILITY OF ALIEN SPACECRAFT.

• That is the scientific assessment today. Of course, the evidence could improve dramatically tomorrow. The scientific consensus has sometimes rejected the right ideas for the wrong reasons (e.g. meteorites, continental drift).

• But wait for the EVIDENCE.

H. G. Wells War of the Worlds (an electronic version is at the UVa Electronic Text Center.)
Study Guide 18
Optional reading: Philip J. Klass UFO's Explained (Clemons Library, TL 789.K56 1975)

Study Guide 19
Bennett textbook, Chapter 10.

Summer 2005 Steven Spielberg-Tom Cruise blockbuster version of WoW (Wikipedia)
Mars in Pop Literature
War of the Worlds, The Musical(!)
The Face on Mars (Guide 23)
War of the Worlds Website

Biography of H. G. Wells

Radio Broadcast of "The War of the Worlds" (1938)
Dr. Zeus's collection of "War of the Worlds" book covers. Trace the influences on Spielberg's visualization of the fighting machines.
Electronic versions of other H. G. Wells stories

Famous compendium of cases of mass hysteria, collective delusions, magnificent scams (some amazingly similar to the dot-com and toxic mortgage bubbles), economic mania, etc. Human nature and frailties have not changed much in the last 2000 years, and this book provides vivid documentation. Required reading for anyone planning a career in social science, politics, law, or business.

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal
and its magazine, The Skeptical Inquirer. Includes the "Klass Files."
James Randi Educational Foundation (site discussing responses to pseudoscience, including UFO's and faked evidence)
Field Guide to Critical Thinking
UFO Skeptic's Page (Robert Sheaffer)
Links to "Skeptical" Resources
The Condon Report (government-sponsored 1968 scientific study of UFO's)
Faking UFO's using NASA satellite data
Air Force Report (1994) on the "Roswell Incident"
Bad Astronomy: An excellent site (by a UVa Astronomy grad) on misuse/misunderstanding of science in the media and entertainment.

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Last modified April 2009 by rwo

Artwork here is from War of the Worlds, The Musical and original film posters & promo material. Scan of the cover of the 1993 edition of WoW from Dr. Zeus. Text copyright © 1998-2009 Robert W. O'Connell. All rights reserved. These notes are intended for the private, noncommercial use of students enrolled in Astronomy 121 at the University of Virginia.